Parts of central Ontario wastewater data shows increasing COVID-19 cases

Since the pandemic began, municipalities across central Ontario have had an alternative way to gauge the presence of COVID-19 in communities.

Aside from the rapid or PCR tests, Simcoe Muskoka and York Region, along with other regional health units, have been taking wastewater samples to test for the virus.

"We're collecting a sample or raw wastewater and sending it to an accredited lab where it's being tested for leftover genetic material from the virus that's in people's wastewater," said Greg Jorden, manager of Wastewater Operation for the City of Barrie.

Jorden said samples are taken at 15-minute intervals each day and sent to labs for testing.

Based on recent wastewater test results, the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit has seen an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.

"Everybody should be aware of significant levels of transmission in our communities," said Dr. Charles Gardner, Simcoe Muskoka's medical officer of health.

The health unit collects data from Barrie, Midland, Collingwood and Orillia.

According to the health unit, recent COVID-19 wastewater samples indicate Barrie and Midland are experiencing an increase in cases.

"It means looking at the signal it's going up in those two municipalities and other two we haven't clearly identified it's going up," said Dr. Gardner.

The trend is also being seen at the two testing sites in York Region.

York's medical officer of health, Dr. Barry Pakes, said although case numbers are rising and can change rapidly, the severity of the cases remains low as hospitals are stable.

"What we're seeing is a little bit of a levelling off," said Dr. Pakes referring to the recent wastewater data.

Dr. Pakes noted that the numbers might spike in the coming weeks due to the province removing restrictions and more people feeling comfortable gathering.

Researchers have been studying wastewater during the pandemic to forecast potential COVID-19 waves.

"We saw the Omicron wave coming in so quickly at Christmas time. It was really striking how fast it came," said Elizabeth Edwards, a professor at the University of Toronto and an expert in wastewater testing.

Edwards said the BA.2 variant is most commonly found in today's collections.

The professor explained that wastewater data is a cost-effective and efficient tool to monitor how rapidly the virus is spreading among the population.

"With one sample a day from Ashbridges Bay, let's say, you're sampling 1.3 million people. Imagine if all those people had to get tested," said Edwards.

Officials with the York and Simcoe Muskoka health units said although wastewater testing shows cases are rising, they remain optimistic that hospitalizations remain steady.

As the province moves into a new pandemic stage, officials will closely watch the data and results from regular wastewater testing.