Impact of Trump tariffs on Metro Vancouver real estate likely short-lived: report

New single family houses billed as estate cottages and townhouses under construction are seen in an aerial view, in Delta, B.C., on Monday, Aug. 12, 2024. (Darryl Dyck / The Canadian Press)

VANCOUVER — A residential market sales forecast by Greater Vancouver Realtors says the impact of possible tariffs from the United States would likely be short-lived.

The annual report from the association that represents 15,000 Realtors says its preliminary investigation and economic modelling shows a drag on sales could rise as cross-border investments slow and sales activity drops.

However, it says that if a recession is accompanied by significant job losses, the pool of buyers would get smaller and sales for 2025 would decline.

The forecast predicts that total sales will increase by 13.9 per cent this year as “lower borrowing costs may finally be having their predicted stimulative effect,” lifting sales in the first half of the year before they stabilize to historical levels for the rest of 2025.

The average home price for all homes is expected to increase by 4.1 per cent to $1.3 million in the 15 jurisdictions the association represents from Whistler to South Delta.

The report says the forecast for this year is similar to what they expected in 2024, however the market now has the benefit of significantly lower borrowing costs to start the year, which the authors say should provide the necessary stimulus to reach the 2025 price predictions.

Its forecast for 2024 said there would be an eight per cent increase in overall sales, but instead sales ended up less than two per cent higher than the previous year.

The report says almost every year there is a plot twist to its report, and this year it is U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods, and changes coming for the federal government.

“Political turmoil at the Canadian federal level along with the potential for a new Conservative government could yield policies negatively impacting the housing market, though new policies could also positively impact the market as well,” the forecast says.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 17, 2025.

The Canadian Press