Flooding concerns are rising, as Environment Canada forecasts up to 75 millimetres of rain for parts of central Ontario.

Regions around Muskoka should brace for southwest wind gusts at roughly 40 km/h and rainfall totals of 25 to 40 millimetres by Wednesday morning. An additional 10 millimetres may fall throughout the day on Wednesday. 

Rainfall totals for Simcoe County from Monday evening through to Wednesday are expected to equal 50 to 70 millimetres of rain. 

Rainfall totals for York and Durham Region from Monday evening through to Wednesday are expected to equal 50 to 75 millimetres of rain. Richmond Hill, Markham, Vaughan and southern Durham Region are under a special weather statement calling for 10 to 20 millimetres of rain through to Wednesday evening.

Barrie forecast Tuesday

A fog advisory is also in effect for York-Durham, Dufferin-Innisfil, Grey-Bruce and much of Simcoe County. Dense fog has formed, and in combination with the rainfall, many drivers are reporting reduced visibility.

Many areas are expecting to break temperature records by late Tuesday afternoon, which is causing snow to melt.

Environment Canada is also calling for heavier wind gusts in Bruce Grey, Simcoe County and York Region from the south west at 50 km/h all of Tuesday and into Wednesday.

A rainfall warning has been issued for:

  • Barrie - Collingwood - Hillsdale
  • Midland - Coldwater - Orr Lake
  • Orillia - Lagoon City - Washago
  • Innisfil - New Tecumseth - Angus
  • Orangeville - Grand Valley - Southern Dufferin County
  • Shelburne - Mansfield - Northern Dufferin County
  • Bracebridge - Gravenhurst
  • Huntsville - Baysville
  • Port Carling - Port Severn
  • Town of Parry Sound - Rosseau - Killbear Park
  • Uxbridge - Beaverton - Northern Durham Region
  • Newmarket - Georgina - Northern York Region
  • Fenelon Falls - Balsam Lake Park - Northern Kawartha Lakes
  • Lindsay - Southern Kawartha Lakes
  • Haliburton - Minden - Southern Haliburton County
  • Caledon
  • Hanover - Dundalk - Southern Grey County
  • Owen Sound - Blue Mountains - Northern Grey County

Barrie forecast Tuesday

There is a chance of flooding in some low-lying areas. Officials say the combination of the rain and the melting snow is of concern because the ground is still considered too frozen to absorb the moisture.

The community of Belle Ewart in Innisfil has been hit hard by flooding. Several streets and properties are already under water.

"My house is flooded for the fourth time this year. I've told the city. They come out and pump the water, but something better needs to happen like we need proper drainage. This is unacceptable," says Mark Van De Sande.

Innisfil town crews have been removing ice buildups and have been pumping water into Lake Simcoe.

"As bad as it is in the Belle Ewart area, we're experiencing flooding across the municipality," says Jason Inwood, a spokesperson for the town.

The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority has issued a flood watch.

In a statement, the LSRCA says “widespread flooding is not expected. The possibility for flooding in various low-lying areas of the watershed exists due to the expected rainfall and melting of the snowpack.”

It also warns that ice breakup will likely happen on several bodies of water, as a result of increased flows. 

The Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority has also issued a watershed statement, which says there is a moderate risk for flooding. It also says ice jams will be an issue.

In Muskoka and Parry Sound, Ontario’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry says localized flooding is possible in flood-prone areas.

It’s estimated that an average depth of 43 centimetres of snow blankets Muskoka and Parry Sound. All that snow contains about 111 millimetres of snow-water content.

The MNRF says runoff from rainfall and snowmelt could cause high water levels.