They built careers on TikTok. Now they’re bracing for a possible ban

People gather for a press conference about their opposition to a potential TikTok ban on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on March 22, 2023. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images via CNN Newsource)

New York — Joanne Molinaro’s life changed when she found TikTok.

She had clawed all the way up to being a partner at a big Chicago law firm after more than a decade of working in corporate litigation. And it nearly crushed her.

“I was thinking to myself … lucky me to have this job that pays my bills,” Molinaro said in an interview with CNN’s Terms of Service podcast. “And so what if it’s soul-sucking and it makes me want to curl up at night into fetal position and cry? That’s okay because this is what adults do.”

Like many people who were bored at home in the pandemic spring of 2020, Molinaro downloaded TikTok for fun. She mainly watched other people’s videos, although she also posted some cooking videos of her own. But then, one of her videos unexpectedly went viral.

Just over a year later, Molinaro withdrew from partnership at her firm to go full-time as a TikTok creator. She’s since built a brand around her profile, @TheKoreanVegan, publishing a cookbook with the same name and racking up more than 3 million followers across TikTok and Instagram.

Molinaro is just one of many TikTok influencers who are now bracing for a possible ban of the app in the United States — and the loss of her six-figure income that could come with it.

A U.S. law that could ban TikTok is set to go into effect on Jan. 19, unless the app is sold or the law is blocked by the Supreme Court.

On Friday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on TikTok’s legal challenge to the law, which the company claims violates its First Amendment rights and those of its 170 million American users. The US government has argued that the app poses a risk to national security because its parent company, ByteDance, is based in China.

“TikTok collects vast swaths of data about tens of millions of Americans, which the (People’s Republic of China) could use for espionage or blackmail,” the US Justice Department stated in a legal filing to the Supreme Court. “And the PRC could covertly manipulate the platform to advance its geopolitical interests and harm the United States.”

The court appeared likely to uphold the law and allow the ban to go into effect, with both liberal and conservative justices directing a series of tough and skeptical questions at lawyers for TikTok and the app’s users. Several key justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, worried about the potential national security concerns that two presidents have raised about the platform. Historically, the court has deferred to the other branches of government on matters of national security.

“Are we supposed to ignore the fact that (TikTok’s) ultimate parent is, in fact, subject to doing intelligence work for the Chinese government?” Roberts said.

And during more than two hours of arguments, many of the justices appeared to view the sell-or-ban law not primarily as one with First Amendment implications, but rather an effort to regulate foreign control of popular app.

But TikTok lawyer, Noel Francisco, repeatedly argued that the law violates its free speech rights, and that separating TikTok’s US presence from ByteDance is an unreasonable solution.

“Any new TikTok would be a fundamentally different platform with different content, which is yet another reason why I think this is a content-based restriction that falls directly on TikTok,” Francisco said.

Financial impact of a ban

Many TikTok users aren’t concerned by the Chinese government, at least if the revenue they generate is any indication.

By TikTok’s own estimate, the 7 million US small businesses that use the app stand to lose US$1 billion in revenue, and around 2 million creators would suffer $300 million in lost earnings in just one month, if the app is banned.

“A TikTok ban would be absolutely catastrophic for the creators and the small businesses who rely on it,” said Jess Maddox, an assistant professor at the University of Alabama who researches social media and internet culture. “I’ve spent my career talking to creators and influencers, they are resilient, they’ll pivot, but it will be a struggle in the meantime and take a hit to them financially.”

TikTok’s popularity skyrocketed in 2020 thanks in large part to its unique algorithm, which prioritizes showing users entertaining content whether or not it’s from an account they follow. It was unlike older mainstay platforms’ feeds, which had largely been based on reinforcing existing social connections. Users flocked to the app, as did creators, who found it far easier to quickly build an audience and discover almost overnight success if they correctly predicted what the algorithm would want.

That’s what happened to Eli Rallo, who downloaded the app in 2020 as a senior in college, stuck at home because of Covid-19.

“I was messing around with my brothers one night… in our kitchen. And I made a video of us filling up a jar of snacks with trail mix and I put music behind it. It was kind of random, very Gen Z humor-esque,” Rallo told CNN. “And the next day it had, like, 200,000 views. I was shocked. And then I just started to make videos from there.”

Social media has been Rallo’s full-time job since October 2021; she now has more than 1 million followers across TikTok and Instagram and is in the process of writing her second book.

“My career just simply would not be where it is today without TikTok,” she said.

Rallo says she now regularly inks five-figure deals with brands to promote their products on TikTok. She’s part of the “creator economy” that Goldman Sachs has estimated could be worth $480 billion by 2027.

But she’s worried that could change if the app is banned.

“I am very concerned, if I’m being honest, about what would happen because I do think my financial situation would change,” she said. “I’m very lucky that I make money from my books, and I’m very lucky that I make money from brands on Instagram. I think we would see an uptick in deals on Instagram, but the TikTok money is definitely the bulk of my income.”

Molinaro said she’s already seeing the financial impact of a potential ban, starting back in April when President Joe Biden signed the sale-or-ban law. In 2024, Molinaro estimates she took in 30 per cent less money from sponsors.

“Those brands are not willing to spend dollars right now because they’re terrified. ‘Oh, why would I spend money on a campaign that’s going to just fall flat on its face in a few days?’” she said. “That has directly impacted me, and I’m sure it’s impacted a lot of influencers.”

Opportunity on other platforms

A TikTok ban could boost competitors like YouTube, Facebook and Instagram.

But for people who make earn their income on TikTok, it may be difficult to shift to depending entirely on those other platforms.

It can take time to build up a following on other apps large enough to draw big sponsorships, as their TikTok followers may or may not follow them. And other platforms’ algorithms often prioritize different things — maybe longer videos or certain kinds of music — and it can take time for people to adjust their strategies.

“It’s not the same technology. It’s not the same type of user. It’s not the same culture,” Maddox said.

And a ban could have ripple effects beyond individuals on TikTok. Many influencers employ teams to support their careers, such as agents, accountants and lawyers to review brand deals.

“Many people think, oh, a TikTok ban is going to mean these glamorous, frivolous influencers are going to have to get real jobs,” Maddox said. “Yes, there’s the top one per cent that is making a lot of money and living a very glamorous lifestyle. But the reality is the people who are going to be most hurt by a TikTok ban are those staunchly middle-class Americans who are using this for information, for entertainment, to grow their business, their following, and grow their community.”

For now, Rallo and Molinaro say they’re working to diversify their businesses and grow their followings elsewhere, including other social platforms or email newsletters.

“Social media, somebody once described it to me, it’s like building real estate on sand. You never know,” Molinaro said.

–CNN’s John Fritze contributed to this report.